Apart from USA Boxing, which was the first National Federation to join the breakaway organisation from the International Boxing Association (IBA), New Zealand Boxing, Boxing Australia, GB Boxing, England Boxing, and the Dutch Boxing Federation have joined as members.

The small number of countries to have pledged their allegiance to World Boxing will have surprised most people who were expecting an avalanche of rebel countries to leave the IBA after the announcement by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in June that it had become the first International Federation to be expelled due to issues with finances, governance and the credibility of competitions.

Simon Toulson, World Boxing's secretary general, claimed yesterday: "We are currently processing a number of applications, which can be time consuming and take several weeks."

This is undoubtedly true, as Argentina and Switzerland, for example, have both announced their resignations from IBA but were not included among yesterday's list of members. Ireland is also due to hold a meeting on August 26 where joining World Boxing is the main item on the agenda.

But it would be a huge achievement, if by the time World Boxing holds its first Congress on a date to be announced in November, where it is due to elect its new President, it has more than 15 members.

That is a figure still considerably less than remain affiliated to the IBA, even after the IOC stripped its recognition and suspicions remaining that the governing body is controlled by Moscow through its Russian President Umar Kremlev, whose connections at the Kremlin reach the very top.

Tyson Lee, President of USA Boxing, who have led the opposition to Kremlev, claimed, "It is very pleasing to see that the first cohort of World Boxing members includes National Federations from three continents as it is vital that World Boxing is a truly global endeavour with nations from across the world playing a role in contributing to the creation of a better future for the sport and everyone connected to it, based on collaboration, consultation and consensus."

Such "consensus" will be impossible to achieve while Asia and Africa remain outside the tent. The chances of winning widespread support from either continent are, at the moment, remote.

Last week, the 50 countries that are members of the African Boxing Confederation (AFBC) pledged their allegiance to IBA and, specifically, Kremlev, at a special meeting in Cameroon's capital Yaounde where the continent's Championships were taking place.

What is happening in African boxing is a carbon copy of what is happening politically in the world's second largest and second-most populous continent. Moscow has inserted itself in countries in the Global South and is taking advantage of Western policy missteps, growing anti-European sentiment, and longstanding failures of international and local actors to address the root causes of regional instability by providing support in terms of finance and military aid.

Kremlev has taken advantage of how African boxing has been neglected by the IBA in the past by offering plenty of generous support, both in cash and boxing equipment. He has undoubtedly piggy-backed on the efforts of Russian intelligence and the Wagner Group - widely accused of being behind a number of recent coups in Africa - to ensure IBA has a firm foothold on boxing there.

In return for his support, Kremlev demands total loyalty. Cameroon's Bertrand Mendouga discovered last week how ruthless he can be when he was forced to step down as President of the AFBC only a year after being elected. It was widely rumoured within boxing circles that Mendouga had to go for taking too much advantage of IBA's generosity.

It will also be hard for World Boxing to make much penetration in Asia where the continent's powerhouses China and India are solidly in the Kremlev camp and former Soviet republics like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remain firmly within Moscow's orbit.

Asian Boxing Confederation President Pichai Chunhavajira announced shortly after the IOC's de-recognition of IBA in June that they would "align with an International Federation recognised by the International Olympic Committee."

IOC backing really is the key, as most countries will not switch allegiances from IBA to World Boxing until they are certain it will be in charge of Olympic boxing. "As a Confederation we believe that the Olympics represent the pinnacle of athletic achievement," Chunhavajira, a member of the IBA Board of Directors, said.

Once the IOC confirms that they recognise World Boxing as the governing body for the sport at the Olympics then the current trickle of countries pledging allegiance will surely become a torrent.

Currently, there is no incentive for any country to leave IBA to join World Boxing when Kremlev is ensuring they are so well looked after with "development grants" and support in other areas, including record prize money at events like World Championships.

While IBA has multi-million-dollar backing from sources unknown, although widely presumed to be the Russian state, World Boxing has launched with budget of EUR900,000 (PS800,000/$1 million), no development plan and an empty tournament calendar.

It has already been made clear that boxers from National Federations who resign from IBA or have joined World Boxing will not be allowed to take part in tournaments sanctioned by them, severely limiting international opportunities.

Meanwhile, competitors from countries who are still members of IBA will face sanctions if they take part in events organised by nations who are no longer affiliated to them. Last month, the Irish Athletic Boxing Association published correspondence from IBA warning that its fighters should "refrain from participating in any international tournaments affiliated with USA Boxing."

Kremlev is gambling that the IOC will not make any decision on whether to recognise World Boxing until after next year's Olympics. Paris 2024 will be the second consecutive Olympic boxing tournament organised by the IOC Taskforce having also been in charge of Tokyo 2020.

Another gamble being taken by Kremlev is that the IOC's attitude towards IBA will change once Thomas Bach has stepped down as President in 2025, an unlikely scenario as the German's replacement will likely be either someone who owes their loyalty to him or Sebastian Coe, who has demonstrated at World Athletics that his attitude towards Russia is the most hard line of all the International Federation Presidents.

Kremlev has told anyone who will listen that he is "sure we are going to get recognition from the IOC again." But a rapprochement between IBA and the IOC gets increasingly unlikely every time he opens his mouth.

Having in June compared the decision by the IOC under Bach to cut off IBA to something that would have happened in "Fascist Germany," he this week called the President's team as being "like prostitutes in sports who get involved in politics".

It is not a strategy designed to win friends and influence people.

World Boxing needs to appreciate the rising importance of African countries and design a comprehensive plan that it can implement so it can be recognised as being in charge of Olympic boxing. Only then will it be able to land the knockout blow on its rival.

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